Chief Economist´s Comment
Trenchant observations direct from the pen of Dr. Gertrud R. Traud, Chief Economist and Head of Research.
Chief Economist’s Comment: A Great Challenge for Economic Thinking
The financial crisis represents a turning point in many ways. A new tune is also finding a sym-pathetic ear in economic sciences. The task for the new economic theory is to discover in which phase of the economic cycle the theory of efficient markets applies, and when phenomena devi-ating from this theory occur. In this way extreme volatilities in the capital markets could be better anticipated and it might even be possible to prevent future financial crises...
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» Vertrau(d)lich: Große Herausforderung für neues Denken (PDF, 172 KB)
Chief Economist’s Comment: Let the gains grow
Since the beginning of the year, the leading German stock index, the DAX, has gained no less than 20 %. But even more impressive is its rise of around 40 % since its low in September of last year. Is this the prelude to a new secular bull market, a simple cyclical recovery, or the next bubble?...
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Chief Economist’s Comment: Severing the institutional ties
The list of the alleged guilty parties responsible for the financial crisis is long. With growing frequency the ratings agencies are also coming under fire. Solutions vary from stronger regula-tion to the establishment of a “European” rating agency. However, all of these solutions are aiming in the wrong direction. It is necessary to sever the institutional ties of the rating agencies. What is needed is to reconnect action and liability of financial market participants. The evaluation of risks and the responsibility for the resulting losses must be located with the relevant actors...
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» Vertrau(d)lich: Institutionelle Verankerung lösen (PDF, 170 KB)
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