Regular Publications
Real Estate Report: No Flying Start
- At a glance: Wide range in the performance of international real estate investment
- Where is the credit crunch?
- Office markets of the Benelux countries without vigour
- Düsseldorf office market: will its dynamism continue?
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Chief Economist’s Comment: A Great Challenge for Economic Thinking
The financial crisis represents a turning point in many ways. A new tune is also finding a sym-pathetic ear in economic sciences. The task for the new economic theory is to discover in which phase of the economic cycle the theory of efficient markets applies, and when phenomena devi-ating from this theory occur. In this way extreme volatilities in the capital markets could be better anticipated and it might even be possible to prevent future financial crises...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: A Great Challenge for Economic Thinking (PDF, 180 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Große Herausforderung für neues Denken (PDF, 172 KB)
FX Report
In Focus
- US dollar: a new balance of terror?
- British pound: extension of purchasing program threatens
- Swiss franc: minimum level under attack
- Japanese yen: safe haven, episode X
- Australian dollar: opportunities and risks
In Brief: CAD, NOK and NZD
» FX Report (PDF, 723 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
In Focus
US dollar: no sustained positive impulses from the Fed
British pound: the government saves, the central bank pays
Swiss franc: lethargic
Japanese yen: bout of weakness
In Brief: CZK, HUF and PLN
» FX Report (PDF, 606 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Let the gains grow
Since the beginning of the year, the leading German stock index, the DAX, has gained no less than 20 %. But even more impressive is its rise of around 40 % since its low in September of last year. Is this the prelude to a new secular bull market, a simple cyclical recovery, or the next bubble?...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Let the gains grow (PDF, 178 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: More Light than Shadow
- At a glance: Normalization of total returns on US and British real estate
- Stable turnover in the European investment market
- Attractive office markets Warsaw and Prague
- German commercial construction in an upswing
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FX Report
In Focus
- US dollar: no strength from inherent vigour
- British pound: slight setback imminent
- Swiss franc: exchange rate minimum not under threat
- Japanese yen: battle against appreciation
Brief: AUD, NOK and SEK
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Chief Economist’s Comment: Severing the institutional ties
The list of the alleged guilty parties responsible for the financial crisis is long. With growing frequency the ratings agencies are also coming under fire. Solutions vary from stronger regula-tion to the establishment of a “European” rating agency. However, all of these solutions are aiming in the wrong direction. It is necessary to sever the institutional ties of the rating agencies. What is needed is to reconnect action and liability of financial market participants. The evaluation of risks and the responsibility for the resulting losses must be located with the relevant actors...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Severing the institutional ties (PDF, 177 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Institutionelle Verankerung lösen (PDF, 170 KB)
Real Estate Report: Opportunities, not just risks
- 2012: a good or bad real estate year?
- US office market slowly on the rise
- German real estate market: where is the crisis?
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Country Focus - Greece: No sign of an ideal solution
The dramatic austerity measures and economic reforms that are needed are placing heavy burdens on the domestic political situation in Greece, partly because such measures go hand in hand with a severe adjustment recession...
» Country Focus - Greece: No sign of an ideal solution (PDF, 264 KB)FX Report
In Focus
- US dollar: easing weighs on the safe haven
- British pound: appreciation close to the end
- Swiss franc: new head, old policy
- Japanese yen: breather for last year’s winner
- New Zealand dollar: little potential
Brief: AUD, CAD and ZAR
» FX Report (PDF, 761 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: New year, new chances
After the painful losses in the stock markets in 2011, investors are longing for a year with less drama. Maintaining asset value is considered the primary objective. However, it is not highly rated sovereign bonds that offer the most favourable risk-reward profile, but stocks. Thus, 2012 will presumably turn into a year of the stock. A level of 7,000 for the DAX by the end of the year does not seem overly ambitious...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: New year, new chances (PDF, 182 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
In Focus
- US dollar: facing manageable challenges
- British pound: splendid isolation?
- Swiss franc: exchange rate target remains in place
- Japanese yen: potential nearly exhausted
In Brief: AUD, NOK and SEK
» FX Report (PDF, 624 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: It’s not all negative
- At a glance: US real estate stocks 2011 global outperformer
- Hamburg office market: a stable anchor?
- Retail real estate in demand in Poland
- Dynamic housing construction in Hesse
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FX Report
In Focus
- US-dollar: euro crisis dominates
- British pound: neither fish nor meat
- Swiss franc: SNB stays the course
- Japanese yen: BoJ fights for exports
In Brief: CZK, HUF and PLN
» FX Report (PDF, 748 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Wishful Thinking
Market participants are wishing for a swift end to the period of crisis. At the very top of their wish list is a more active role by the European Central Bank (ECB) in finding the solution to the debt crisis. It’s a little bit like the belief in Santa Claus...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Wishful Thinking (PDF, 180 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
In Focus
- US-dollar: appreciation not by its own strength
- British pound: comeback of the money press
- Swiss franc: in the grip of the SNB
- Japanese yen: safe haven with risks
In Brief: CAD, NZD and ZAR
» FX Report (PDF, 646 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: “Bear-party” winding down
September, the classic horror month for stock investors, is over. In spite of pronounced temporary downturns, the great price collapse in the international stock markets feared by so many did not happen. Does that mean we are in the clear?
» Chief Economist’s Comment: “Bear-party” winding down (PDF, 182 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: Long-term trends should not be neglected
- At a glance: German commercial construction permits
- Demography weighs on the office market – not everywhere
- Attractive office markets in Northern Europe
- Frankfurt high-rises: working or living?
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» Immobilienreport: Langfristige Trends nicht vernachlässigen (PDF, 83 KB)
Real Estate Report: Northern European Real Estate Markets Well Positioned
The economies of Northern Europe are in an upswing, though that upswing will slow markedly in 2012. ...
» Real Estate Report: Northern European Real Estate Markets Well Positioned (PDF, 286 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Nordeuropäische Immobilienmärkte gut positioniert (PDF, 294 KB)
FX Report
- US-dollar: euro risks gaining the upper hand
- British pound: in the undertow of the euro
- Swiss franc: safe haven no more?
- Japanese yen: real interest rate advantage
- Australian dollar: no safe haven
In Brief: NOK, RUB and SEK; CZK, HUF and PLN; BRL, CNY and INR
» FX Report (PDF, 1 MB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: Back in Crisis Mode?
The last weeks have been characterized by turmoil in the financial markets. On the economic front there are signs of weakening in many countries ...
» Real Estate Report: Back in Crisis Mode? (PDF, 246 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: The Solution is the Problem
So far, the German bond market has been a clear beneficiary of the euro debt crisis. With a current interest rate level of barely 2.2 %, the Federal Republic is refinancing itself much more favourably in the capital market than all other member countries of the euro...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: The Solution is the Problem (PDF, 334 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
- US dollar: balance of terror
- British pound: lethargic!
- Swiss franc: battle against appreciation
- Japanese yen: intervention with limited success
In Brief:AUD, CAD and ZAR
» FX Report (PDF, 1 MB)More downloads:
FX Report
- US dollar: crisis beneficiary?
- British pound: restrictive or expansionary monetary policy?
- Swiss franc: euro at DM level?
- Japanese yen: stability wanted
In Brief: NOK, NZD and SEK
» FX Report (PDF, 722 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: No leeway for tax giveaways
Professor Paul Kirchhof, an expert on constitutional law, recently revived his proposals for tax reform. In addition to a simplification of the tax system, he maintains that his reform would achieve additional goals such as more tax justice and an increase in efficiency ...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: No leeway for tax giveaways (PDF, 183 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Kein Spielraum für Steuergeschenke (PDF, 186 KB)
Real Estate Report: In calmer waters
The financing conditions for commercial real estate in the US are normalizing. Even the CMBS market is slowly gaining traction again ...
» Real Estate Report: In calmer waters (PDF, 604 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
In Focus
- US dollar: weak growth vs. debt crisis
- British pound: concerns over growth instead of inflation
- Swiss franc: buying panic!
- Japanese yen: bulwark of stability
In Brief: CZK, HUF and PLN
» FX Report (PDF, 1 MB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Quo vadis Greece?
Badmouthing Greece seems to be the new national sport in Germany. Not only are anecdotes about plush salaries in many news pieces assuming the status of universal validity, on the political level, as well, such populist tones can be heard in some quarters...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Quo vadis Greece? (PDF, 54 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: Great differences in performance
The recovery in the international real estate markets is progressing – though with major differences among countries and sectors. This is confirmed by the most recently published performance data for 2010...
» Real Estate Report: Great differences in performance (PDF, 605 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Große Performanceunterschiede (PDF, 611 KB)
Chief Economist’s Comment: Germany must save, too
After the ratings agency S&P downgraded the outlook for the US to “negative”, the debt prob-lem in the euro zone seems a little less grave, at least for now. Accordingly, the euro surged again...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Germany must save, too (PDF, 404 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Auch Deutschland muss sparen (PDF, 409 KB)
FX Report
The euro can barely be stopped. With the tailwind from the ECB, the euro is currently also surging past the problems of the European sovereign debt crisis, and the euro-dollar exchange rate climbed to as high as 1.45...
» FX Report (PDF, 1 MB)More downloads:
FX Report
In the wake of the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, the currencies of the oil exporters as well as the safe haven of the Swiss franc benefited ...
» FX Report (PDF, 1 MB)More downloads:
Chief Economist's Comment: Inflation genie from the bottle
“What a difference a day made ...” – who does not know this classic song, which was recorded by Jamie Cullum, among others. If one applies this sentiment to the most recent times, the question arises which day it could be talking about. The day when the Tunisian people initiated the departure of the Arab world to a new – as of yet still uncertain – age, and when even the Chinese powers that be banned the word “Jasmine” in an effort to prevent the unrest from spilling over into their own country?...
» Chief Economist's Comment: Inflation genie from the bottle (PDF, 52 KB)Real Estate Report: Progressing real estate cycle
The improved consumer activity in the US, a result of the massive use of fiscal policy, has slowed the downturn in retail properties, and stabilization is in sight ...
» Real Estate Report: Progressing real estate cycle (PDF, 604 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Fortschreitender Immobilienzyklus (PDF, 610 KB)
FX Report
The euro is still alive. The common currency was even able to appreciate noticeably at times during
the last few weeks...
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Real Estate Report: Things remain interesting
A continued recovery and the further unwinding of the consequences of the financial crisis will shape the international real estate markets in the new year ...
» Real Estate Report: Things remain interesting (PDF, 603 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Bull yields to bear
From a cyclical point of view, the potential for the DAX has been largely exhausted. If anything, stocks should come under pressure in 2011. In such an environment, cyclical stocks should be avoided and defensive stocks with high dividends should be favoured. The cyclical bull market of the DAX that has been under way since March 2009 will presumably have to yield the stage to the bear this year...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Bull yields to bear (PDF, 416 KB)More downloads:
FX Report
The Japanese yen finished 2010 as the winner in the currency market and was just able to maintain its lead over the Australian dollar. The big loser was the euro, with only the Hungarian forint declining even more...
» FX Report (PDF, 300 KB)More downloads:
Country Focus - Central Europe: Varying Growth Dynamics
In 2010 and 2011 Poland continues to be among the most dynamic countries in Europe. But for two of its neighbours, Hungary and the Czech Republic, growth rates are increasing as well ...
» Country Focus - Central Europe: Varying Growth Dynamics (PDF, 198 KB)Chief Economist’s Comment: Chocolate for 2011
Our main scenario for 2011 is entitled “Bitter-Sweet”. The ingredients have already been mixed: a continuing expansionary monetary policy in the industrialized countries, combined with a restrictive fiscal policy. Over the short term, that is, in the coming year, the global economy will thus cool somewhat. The result is the premium chocolate type “bitter-sweet”...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Chocolate for 2011 (PDF, 48 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: With cautious optimism into the new year
The recovery in the global real estate markets has broadened over the course of this year. But while the British market has already pulled far ahead and further price increases are not very likely in 2011, the US office market is slow to gain momentum. The German REIT, which has led a shadowy existence so far , could receive some impulses next year...
» Real Estate Report: With cautious optimism into the new year (PDF, 77 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Vorsichtig optimistisch ins neue Jahr (PDF, 78 KB)
Chief Economist’s Comment: Columbo asks the crucial question
Our chief scenario for 2010 is called “Columbo”. This year he already asked the crucial question twice: “What’s up with the sovereign debt?” In the coming year, as well, the high level of sovereign debt in many countries will continue to move the capital markets. Thus we could resort once again to Columbo also for 2011. However, we will not do that. We will be happy to reveal the motto we have chosen for 2011 when we present our new outlook for the year on November 30...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Columbo asks the crucial question (PDF, 48 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Columbo stellt die entscheidende Frage (PDF, 49 KB)
US Monthly: The Fed swings back into action
By mid-2010 the recovery of the US economy has lost momentum. Growth should remain muted in the second half of the year...
» US Monthly: The Fed swings back into action (PDF, 123 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: New Normal
The repercussions of the financial crisis are much less in Germany than in many other coun-tries. One reason is that Germany does not have to deal with the fallout from a real estate bubble. Another reason is that the considerable importance of industry is currently a guarantor for high growth...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: New Normal (PDF, 156 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Currency War - The Empire Strikes Back?
The perspective of increasing political tensions about the “correct” exchange rates has most recently moved into the centre of attention in the financial markets. The threat of a wave of substantial competitive depreciations or even a trade war between the most important economic regions seems limited at this time...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Currency War - The Empire Strikes Back? (PDF, 188 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Währungskrieg: Das Imperium schlägt zurück? (PDF, 192 KB)
Real Estate Report: Upwards with varying tempo
Most European office markets have by now come off their lowpoint. That is also the case in Scandinavia, where Swedish commercial real estate is leading the recovery. Office rents in Frankfurt should likewise increase slightly again in the coming year, even though vacancy rates, especially in non-core buildings, remain at a high level. By contrast, the US housing market is not yet sending out any clear signals of an improvement...
» Real Estate Report: Upwards with varying tempo (PDF, 234 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Aufwärts mit unterschiedlichem Tempo (PDF, 237 KB)
US Monthly: Sounding out the depth of the soft spot
By mid-2010 the recovery of the US economy has lost momentum. Growth should re-main muted in the second half of the year....
» US Monthly: Sounding out the depth of the soft spot (PDF, 315 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Role Reversal
US President Obama has proposed a new stimulus program to breathe life into the lethargic labour market. I doubt, however, that further expansionary fiscal measures in the US will have the desired effects in the labour market. Rather, there is a risk that with them the US will merely take the road to “Japanese conditions” – with rising debt and slow growth ...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Role Reversal (PDF, 172 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: Peak has been reached
The German economy grew in the second quarter by 2.2 % over the previous quarter, or by 9 % using the American, annualized notation. Exports reached record levels, and German businesses are suffering from a shortage of skilled workers. If one combines these two components, this sounds like a boom and rising stock prices. In this environment, how can one explain why stock markets have pulled back noticeably over the last few days?
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Peak has been reached (PDF, 204 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Report: German real estate market robust
The German real estate market has held up well in the recent financial and economic crisis. Now things are looking up again, although major moves should not be expected. That holds for the office markets (see p. 3) and for residential construction. So far no credit crunch is evident in the financing market – though major challenges remain here.
» Real Estate Report: German real estate market robust (PDF, 241 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilienreport: Deutscher Immobilienmarkt robust (PDF, 235 KB)
Chief Economist's Comment: Germany in an updraft
Whether the German team will continue the positive trend following the first game against Australia is not something I can judge. When it comes to the economy, though, the signs for a strong upswing this year are clear ...
» Chief Economist's Comment: Germany in an updraft (PDF, 163 KB)More downloads:
Real Estate Newsletter: No one-way street
As in the past, retail property has proved less volatile in the most recent crisis. The improvement in the real estate markets is proceeding in tandem with the economic recovery. However, this development is not a one-way street: the data from the US shows, for example, that the road out of the deep slump can be a bumpy one ...
» Real Estate Newsletter: No one-way street (PDF, 237 KB)More downloads:
Chief Economist’s Comment: All that matters is the political will
Is the current nervousness in the markets attributable solely to the Greek tragedy, or is it in-stead the expression of a general risk aversion vis-à-vis countries that are deeply in debt? Accepting the dissolution of the European Currency Union is not a meaningful approach to finding a solution ...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: All that matters is the political will (PDF, 163 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Allein der politische Wille zählt (PDF, 159 KB)
Real Estate Newsletter: Spring - also in the real estate market
Real estate markets usually respond slowly to the overall economic development. But here, too, the improvement in the economy is gradually having an effect. While the just published international total returns on directly held real estate were fairly meager over the last year (see p. 2), global real estate stocks and REITs have been anticipating the recovery for some time ...
» Real Estate Newsletter: Spring - also in the real estate market (PDF, 238 KB)Chief Economist’s Comment: Don’t be afraid of Euro weakness
Since December of 2009, when it was trading at 1.51 US Dollars, the Euro has fallen most recently to between 1.30 and 1.35. This is the lowest it has been in ten months. As the reason, observers have pointed in the last months to the supposedly imminent state bankruptcy of Greece, and recently to the downgrade of Portugal by the ratings agency Fitch ...
» Chief Economist’s Comment: Don’t be afraid of Euro weakness (PDF, 168 KB)More downloads:
» Vertrau(d)lich: Keine Angst vor Euro-Schwäche (PDF, 162 KB)
Real Estate Newsletter: First Signs of an Invigoration
The real estate markets were not able to escape the global financial and economic crisis. As a rather late-cycle sector, real estate will be suffering for some time to come from the after-effects of the deepest recession in decades ...
» Real Estate Newsletter: First Signs of an Invigoration (PDF, 240 KB)More downloads:
» Immobilien-Newsletter: Erste Signale einer Belebung (PDF, 243 KB)
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